Analyst predicts Apple will ship less than 15 million Apple Watch units by September, cites supply chain issues, softening demand

The Apple Watch’s supply chain could remain constricted for some time to come.

Releasing a revised forecast note to investors, respected industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities stated that the Apple Watch is likely to see less than 15 million units shipped through the end of September.

In the note, he said that Apple Watch shipments for fiscal year 2015 are likely to be lower than most analysts and investors expect.

Apple’s fiscal year runs through the end of September, which means the 15-million forecast does not apply to holiday 2015 sales.

According to Kuo’s sources within the supply chain, which have accurately predicted shipping numbers in the past, supply issues with the Taptic Engine for Apple Watch should start to improve in late May, allowing Apple to catch up with consumer demand. Kuo also said demand for the new wrist-worn device has softened since it launched in late April.

“Our survey shows that most Apple Watches are scheduled to begin shipping in June, and the shipments schedule hasn’t changed significantly since the start of preorders,” he said. “We therefore conclude (second quarter of calendar 2015) production output is sufficient for the orders placed so far. As such, we infer that market demand for Apple Watch may be slowing down.”

Kuo’s research also found that over 80 percent of orders thus far have been for the larger 42-millimeter model, which implies that it has been a male-dominated customer mix for early adopters.

In his view, the first-generation Apple Watch is a device with “potential,” but Kuo believes it needs improvement. He compared it to Apple’s first-generation iPhone, which debuted in 2007, but saw moderate sales until the introduction of the improved second-generation iPhone 3G.

Stay tuned for additional details as they become available.

Via AppleInsider